The escalating crisis in the Middle East is causing massive disruptions across the global logistics chain. Following threats from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to set fire to any vessel attempting to pass, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked.
The bottleneck in the Persian Gulf
- Approximately 3,200 ships are currently stuck in the Persian Gulf, representing about 4% of total global shipping tonnage.
- This includes 112 oil tankers and 132 container ships holding roughly 458,000 TEU. However, broader estimates indicate that more than 2 million TEU are currently stuck in the wider region.
- Safe departure from the Gulf is now virtually impossible, as maritime insurers are no longer covering these high-risk voyages.
Carrier responses
- Several carriers have announced booking stops for the Middle East. MSC has taken the most drastic step, halting all container bookings for the entire region, while others are pausing specific cargo like reefers and dangerous goods.
- While Persian Gulf ports normally account for 3.3% of global container throughput, analysts warn that up to 10% of global container traffic will experience disruptions due to interconnected international supply chains. Trapped vessels and containers miss their usual loops in Asia and Europe, causing sudden capacity and equipment shortages worldwide.
- Capacity is being actively shifted to other trades. For other origins, including China and the Far East, carriers are responding with direct rate increases and additional surcharges. (Nieuwsblad Transport)
Global impact
- The global market is feeling the strain: the conflict is driving up fuel prices, insurance premiums, and freight rates. Notably, one-tenth of the oil normally transiting to the Port of Rotterdam passes through the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting the global oil and gas market.
Impact export
- While the direct impact on total container exports seems limited, companies that export heavily to the Middle East are facing severe damages.(Nieuwsblad Transport)
- The financial impact is hitting all export trades. Carriers are now applying an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), also known as an Emergency Bunker Surcharge (EBS), to all export shipments, adding anywhere from €80 to €150 per TEU.
