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Strait of Hormuz 

Please note: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is very dynamic. The information below reflects the current status, but the news is developing quickly and the situation on the water may shift again in the coming days. 

Chinese vessels allowed to pass

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical bottleneck for global trade, but recent diplomatic developments are introducing new dynamics. While the route is still largely closed to general commercial traffic following the geopolitical escalations in late February, an exception has just been made.

What is happening in the region:

• Exclusive passage for Chinese ships: Following direct negotiations between Beijing and Tehran, Iran has granted a group of Chinese vessels permission to transit the blockaded strait.
• US-China diplomatic push: This passage coincides with US President Donald Trump’s state visit to China. Following discussions with President Xi Jinping, Trump indicated that China is willing to assist in brokering a deal to fully reopen the strait.
• Ongoing volatility: Despite these high-level talks and a fragile ceasefire that has been in place since April 8th, the area remains highly unstable for standard freight. Just last week (May 14th), the UKMTO reported another commercial vessel being boarded and diverted into Iranian waters.

While the involvement of the US and China offers hope for reopening this vital corridor, the reality on the water remains unchanged for now. The strait is still effectively closed for general commercial shipping. You should continue to factor in extended transit times due to rerouting and prepare for sustained high fuel surcharges, as the region remains highly volatile. (Flows)

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Ocean rates: rates surge driven by early peak season

Container spot rates on the Asia-Europe (and Asia-America) trades are showing double-digit increases this week. This surge is driven by new FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates, peak season surcharges, and tightening capacity on the water.

What is the current situation?

• Significant rate hikes: Rates from Shanghai to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean have shot up by 11% and 20%, respectively, this week.
• An early peak season: Due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and longer transit times, many importers are choosing to ship their goods earlier than usual. This is already leading to fuller vessels and space shortages in Asia.
• New increases from June 1st: Carriers are trying to maintain this momentum. Major players like MSC have already announced new, higher rates starting June 1st.
• Market skepticism: Although carriers are actively limiting capacity through blank sailings, it is still waiting whether actual market demand is strong enough to sustain these high rates in the long term. (The Loadstar)

Carriers manage space ahead of peak season

To support their push for higher rates, ocean carriers are actively tightening available capacity on the water. Even though underlying consumer demand remains relatively soft, shipping lines are using aggressive capacity management to defend their margins against high fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical disruptions.

• Increase in blank sailings: Carriers are stepping up the number of canceled voyages well ahead of the traditional summer peak season. This tightening of space is already leading to reports of rolled cargo (containers left behind to be picked up by later vessels) at several loading ports.
• Shorter notice for cancellations: Carriers are equipping themselves to pull capacity from the market much faster. For example, the Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) recently amended their agreement to shorten the notice period for seasonal blank sailings around major holidays from 12 weeks down to just 6 to 8 weeks.
• Supply-driven tightness: Market analysts warn that if inflation continues to weigh on consumer spending, actual peak season demand might disappoint. The current capacity crunch is largely driven by carriers actively removing space from the market, rather than a genuine surge in cargo volumes.

With carriers becoming increasingly agile and aggressive in pulling capacity at shorter notice, the risk of rolled cargo in Asia is growing. To avoid delays at the port of origin, accurate forecasting is more important than ever. We highly recommend booking your shipments as early as possible to secure your space on the vessel and protect your supply chain from sudden capacity cuts. (The Loadstar)

Trucking: toll reductions won't impact green subsidies

As the Netherlands prepares for the new national truck toll (vrachtwagenheffing) on July 1st, the government has provided clarity on the recently proposed rate reductions. The good news for the industry is that lowering the toll to relieve carriers will not come at the expense of sustainability initiatives.

• Green subsidies remain intact: There were concerns that lower toll revenues would mean less money in the government fund used to subsidize emission-free transport. The Ministry has now confirmed that the subsidy packages for green and efficient transport will remain completely unchanged.
• Pending final rates: The originally planned toll rates ranged from 2.5 to nearly 50 cents per kilometer, depending on the weight and emission class of the truck. While the government aims to lower these rates to help the sector cope with high diesel prices, the exact new figures and their specific implementation timeline are still being finalized. (Nieuwsblad Transport)

📌 Port congestion 

Rotterdam

• Average delay ~ 4 days.

Antwerpen

• Average delay ~ 2 days.

Germany ports

• Hamburg: average delay ~ 2 days.
• Bremerhaven: average delay ~ 2 day.

Top reads from last week: 

• Fear of millions in damage due to blockade of port railway line ‍
• Panama Canal hot thanks to Middle East crisis