There is a lot going on at the Panama Canal. Low water is forcing the canal to cut back. A long drought has drained the lakes that feed the locks, and forecasters expect a dry El Niño late this year. The canal lifts ships with fresh lake water, so less water means fewer and lighter ships.
What the canal changed:
Fewer slots and lighter loads mean longer waits, tighter space and, on some services, extra surcharges. This hits routes that cross the canal, including parts of Latin America and the US east coast.
Central America cargo feels this too. It sails on the same vessels, so if the low water lasts, expect tighter space, less room in the allocation and longer transit times. We are watching it closely for your Latin America lanes.
Panama is building a new lake to add water, but that fix is two to three years away. Expect the squeeze to last through the dry season.
Carriers are already adapting. Some are reshuffling which ships run which services, so their vessels still qualify for the canal and sailings stay on schedule. Expect more of these adjustments while the low water lasts. Source: Panama Canal Authority via gCaptain
💡What to do: If you ship through Panama, to or from Latin America or the US, share your forecasts with us early. We watch the slot situation and flag any change to your sailings before it bites.
China closes for its National Day holiday from 1 to 7 October. Factories slow down before and after. Carriers cut sailings to match the drop in cargo.
Drewry counts 49 cancelled sailings across the main East-West trades between 24 August and 27 September, about 6% of the schedule. On the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades, carriers are cancelling about 17% of sailings around the holiday. MSC blanked several Asia-Europe sailings in weeks 39, 40 and 41. Hapag-Lloyd cancelled three more.
Space in the weeks before the holiday goes first. Book two to three weeks ahead and share your forecasts with us, so we hold space for you. Source: Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker, Container News
Rates on your lanes fell again. Drewry's World Container Index sat at $4,465 per 40-foot
container on 3 September. It was stable overall, as gains on other trades masked the drop to Europe.
Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 5% to $4,092. Shanghai-Genoa fell 10% to $4,368. Ships on AsiaEurope run below 80% full, so carriers keep discounting to fill them.
What changed since our last update (24 August):
Source: Drewry World Container Index (3 September), Maersk PSS notice via Container News
Dutch diesel sat around €2.35 per litre in early September, broadly flat versus August. Road fuel surcharges stay at a similar level.
👀 One to watch:
Road fuel is stable for now. But the ocean fuel surcharge (BAF, an extra fee that tracks fuel cost) will likely rise at the next quarterly update. We will flag it before it lands. Source: Shypple fuel surcharges knowledge base
The United Arab Emirates tightens its border checks from 1 October. Cargo data must be filed before loading. This is the same idea already used by the United States, the EU and Japan. File 24 hours before loading for most bills of lading, and 6 hours before for a master bill. Miss the window and the container may not load. Source: UAE MPCI advisory, Hapag-Lloyd
💡What to do: Send us your shipping instructions early for UAE shipments. We file the advance data on time, so nothing is held at origin.
